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    首頁 > 銀行頻道 > 快訊 > 文章詳情頁

    評級調降、IPO叫停,農商行不良風險集中暴露

    隨著不良率持續攀升,農商行資產質量風險正在發酵。

    年初至今,已有5家農商行被調降信用等級。更令人驚詫的是,評級報告揭露出貴陽農商行不良貸款率已飆升至20%,而鄒平農商行凈利潤僅10萬元。此外,7月以來有兩家農商行先后在發審會前夜取消審核,IPO臨門被摁下“暫停鍵”。

    分析人士認為這些現象反映了市場對于農商行資產質量擔憂的加大。近年來,雖然銀行業整體不良率已逐漸走穩,但是農商行不良率卻在持續上升。而隨著不良認定標準趨嚴,業內預期銀行不良率未來還將繼續走高。

    五家農商行被下調評級

    公開信息顯示,今年以來,已有6家銀行的信用等級被調降,其中有5家為農商行,占比超過8成。

    7月10日,東方金誠國際信用評估有限公司(下稱“東方金誠”)對山東鄒平農村商業銀行的評級報告顯示,鄒平農商行2017年不良率飆升至9.28%,凈利潤僅10萬元。

    此外,由于較大的貸款損失準備缺口,導致資本凈額被大幅侵蝕,鄒平農商行的資本充足率由2016年末的11.73%下滑至2017年末的7.12%,核心一級資本充足率由10.58%大幅下降至6.22%,已明顯低于監管最低要求。同時,該行撥備覆蓋率由上年的215.30%暴跌至59.28%,亦顯著低于120%-150%的監管下限。

    鄒平農商行主要數據和指標

    由此,東方金誠將山東鄒平農商行的主體信用評級由AA-下調至A+,評級展望為負面;同時,下調2017年發行的2億元二級資本債的債項等級,由A+下調至A。

    而不久之前,中誠信國際信用評級有限責任公司(以下簡稱“中誠信”)出具的評級報告將貴陽農商行的主體信用等級由AA-下調為A+;并將其2015年7億元、2016年5億元二級資本債券的信用等級由A+下調為A。

    據中誠信6月29日公布的評級報告顯示,貴陽農商行不良貸款率從2016年末的4.13%飆升至2017年末的19.54%;與之相應,該行不良貸款撥備覆蓋率從161.25%暴跌至34.15%,資本充足率由11.77%銳減為0.91%,均遠低于監管要求。

    貴陽農商行主要數據和指標

    除了上述兩家銀行被降低評級以外,公開信息顯示,今年1月,山東五蓮農商行的評級展望被評級機構由穩定調整為負面。2月,吉林蛟河農商行的主體信用等級,被評級機構從原來的的A+降至A,并列入負面觀察名單。 此外,今年5月,廣饒農商行的主體信用評級也被降為A+,展望被降為負面。

    資產質量下滑,侵蝕銀行凈利

    對于評級調降的原因,多份評級報告中均提到了,信用風險持續暴露,導致資產質量下滑,從而引起的凈利下降。

    東方金誠在評級報告評級公告中表示,鄒平農商行不良貸款大幅攀升,撥備覆蓋率低于監管要求,資產質量明顯下行。受資產減值損失計提規模較大影響,該行凈利潤以及凈資產收益率等盈利指標大幅下降,盈利能力持續承壓。

    受資產質量下滑的影響,除了上述銀行被調降評級外,近日,另有山東壽光農商行因貸款損失準備計提不足而被審計機構出具保留意見。7月2日,北京永拓會計師事務所出具的財報審計報告顯示,壽光農商行若按照規定的會計政策計提貸款損失準備及抵債資產減值準備,2017年度凈利潤將減少7.53億元,而并非紙面上的6569.98萬元。由此,該審計機構因該行“未足額計提發放貸款和墊款損失準備及抵債資產減值準備”而形成了保留意見。

    審計報告截圖

    不良情況成發審會關注重點

    7月以來已經連續有兩家農商行IPO被取消。證監會7月9日公告,鑒于浙江紹興瑞豐農商行尚有相關事項需要進一步核查,決定取消第十七屆發審委2018年第97次發審委會議對該公司發行申報文件的審核。而此前的7月2日,青島農商行因同樣的原因被證監會取消了審核。

    對于審核取消的原因,恒豐銀行研究院研究員楊芮對媒體表示,兩家農商行被取消上會審核,可能與其公司治理水平、資產質量兩方面的原因有關,折射出當前我國農商行在發展過程中面臨的主要挑戰。

    與2017年上市銀行平均不良率1.54%相比,青島農商行1.86%的不良率明顯高于這一水平;瑞豐農商行雖相差不遠,但該行的不良率好轉與其近年來大批量處置不良資的舉動產密切相關。招股書信息顯示,2014-2017年上半年,瑞豐農商行累計轉讓不良資產21.39億元,核銷呆賬5.3億元,共處置了26.69億的不良資產,使得2017年上半年的不良貸款總額降至7.51億元。

    梳理今年成功過會的4家銀行(包括成都銀行、鄭州銀行、長沙銀行、江蘇紫金農商行)在發審會上的情況后會發現,業績并不是發審委的第一大關注點,而不良率問題則屢屢被重點提及。

    比如,鄭州銀行被問及,報告期不良貸款總額和不良貸款率等各項財務指標持續上升的原因及其合理性,與同行業可比公司相關財務指標的波動趨勢不一致的原因及其合理性。長沙銀行也被問及2016年不良率顯著低于同行業可比公司平均水平,以及凈利差、凈息差顯著高于同行業可比公司平均水平的原因及合理性等,同時也被問及貸款五級分類制度是否健全有效,減值準備計提是否充分等問題。

    不良認定標準趨嚴,不良率將繼續走高

    數據顯示,自2017年初以來,農商行整體不良率由2016第四季度的2.49%大幅上升至2018第一季度的3.26%,與同時期商業銀行不良貸款率穩定走勢分化較大。

    國泰君安研報

    對此,國泰君安分析師邱冠華表示,2017 年一季度以來,銀行業整體資產質量持續改善,但是從分類型銀行數據來看,主要是國有銀行和股份制銀行在改善,而農商行的不良率卻一路攀升的。上市銀行的整體風控能力和管理水平普遍高出農商行好幾個檔次。

    天風證券分析師廖志明認為,我國農商行由農信社改制而來,相比上市銀行,農商行普遍公司治理水平較低,不良認定標準較松,因而受不良監管趨嚴影響較大。

    上月初,有消息稱監管層已要求各銀行將逾期90天以上的貸款計入不良貸款之中。此前,一位接近監管層人士曾向藍鯨財經透露:“確實有將全部逾期90天以上的貸款計入不良的要求,時間上會分步執行。”

    前文提及的貴陽農商行不良貸款率猛漲背后的原因即在于。中誠信在評級報告中稱,為貫徹監管部門降低不良貸款偏離度的要求,該行在2017年末將大部分逾期90天以上貸款納入不良貸款計算,由此導致年末不良貸款激增。

    隨著不良認定趨嚴,業內預期未來銀行不良率未來還將繼續走高。據邱冠華預計,今年二季度及下半年,銀行不良率會出現小幅回升。主要兩方面原因:一是去杠桿縮融資確實不同程度導致實體經濟違約率小幅回升;二是不良確認趨嚴使得不良暴露加速。(藍鯨銀行 梁軼雯)

    原文來自: 中國金融觀察網

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