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    暴漲之后回看2804點,固若金湯還是“馬奇諾防線”?

    暴漲之后回看2804點,固若金湯還是“馬奇諾防線”? 中國金融觀察網www.uasevent.com

    3540只個股上漲,行業板塊無一下跌,滬深兩市今天迎來了久違的普漲!

    端午節后,滬指已連續兩日反彈。而自5月10日以來,滬指在一個月的時間里,四度觸及2月25日的跳空缺口(2804-2838點),隨后均有不同幅度的反彈。

    暴漲之后回看2804點,固若金湯還是“馬奇諾防線”? 中國金融觀察網www.uasevent.com

    有分析人士指出,市場在人氣低迷時每每能企穩反彈,客觀上也為科創板的開板提供了一個有利的環境,其間的時空匹配關系值得研究。

    滬指第四次試探“缺口”

    今日,券商板塊領銜上漲,大基建、稀土永磁、白酒等全面開花。北向資金加倉意愿堅決,兩市量能也同步放大。

    值得一提的是,滬指自5月初進入盤整以來,已在一個月內第四次觸及今年2月25日形成的缺口區間2804.23-2838.39點。

    本周一,A股雖小幅收陽,但上證指數最低2824.36點,已然侵入缺口區間。此前三次也同樣觸及這一區間,分別是在:5月10日、5月20日和5月27日。

    消息面上,昨晚的一項政策也助燃了市場熱情:中辦、國辦印發《關于做好地方政府專項債券發行及項目配套融資工作的通知》,允許將部分地方專項債作為一定比例的項目資本金。各券商研究所就此連夜撰寫研報解讀。

    今日,基建板塊直接受到利好刺激,成為推動上漲的中堅力量。如建筑材料板塊的青松建化、天山股份、祁連山等多股漲停。

    華泰證券認為,該政策可能為基建投資帶來2-3個百分點的增速提升,對東部、中部和西南等專項債發行量較大區域的利好或更加明顯,預計后續的“降低項目資本金出資比例”等措施也有望出臺。

    券商白酒助力反彈

    券商板塊作為市場風向標,在每次反彈中必定不會缺席。今日券商板塊暴力上漲逾5%,哈投股份、華林證券、中國銀河等多只個股漲停。

    仔細來看,券商今日拉升與以往有所不同。此前大盤觸底反彈,證券板塊拉升的同時,往往伴隨著創業板個股的下跌。

    5月29日,券商板塊午后直線拉升,華林證券一度逼近漲停,南京證券、華創陽安等多股上攻。而創業板指報1497.89點,下跌了0.48%。

    6月5日,券商板塊午后異動,帶動上證綜指沖高。創業板指報1451.18點,也下跌0.35%。

    但在今日,創業板則放量上漲4%。

    有市場人士認為,此前創業板走低,是大盤走強的掩護下題材股的出逃。相比之下,今日的上漲更為良性的上行。

    此外,白酒板塊今日也漲幅居前,五糧液漲逾8.48%,順鑫農業、今世緣、山西汾酒等多股漲逾6%。

    偏好消費白馬股的北向資金延續昨日流入態勢,買入態度依然堅決,僅半日,北向資金凈流入超54億元。港交所數據顯示,截至6月11日收盤,北向資金合計凈流入69.45億元。其中,滬股通渠道凈買入37.74億元,深股通渠道凈買入31.71億元。

    轉機信號是否明確?

    對后市走勢,各機構分歧還是較為明顯。

    中信證券6月9日發表策略報告認為,全球貨幣寬松預期強化,資金風險偏好持續修復;預計外資將恢復持續凈流入A股的狀態,其偏好品種的戰略配置窗口打開。國內政策的調整空間更大,主動性更強。另外,外部因素可控,市場預期過度悲觀。市場已在戰略配置區間內,隨著轉機信號明確,會進入企穩上升的通道。

    空間上,市場已調整至預判的戰略配置區間;時間上,各類轉機信號逐漸明確后,市場會企穩回升,兌現配置價值。

    今日,興業證券舉行2019年下半年度投資策略會,主要觀點是:市場大概率將上上下下,起起伏伏,應以把握結構性機會為主、階段性機會為輔。

    日前,海通策略荀玉根曾表示,上證綜指2804點缺口類似“馬奇諾防線”,沒有實質意義,最近1周部分強勢股回調本質是性價比下降,微觀上市場橫盤已難以持續。本輪調整起源于估值修復后基本面沒跟上,短期仍需警惕內外負面因素的發酵。上證綜指2440點反轉的中期趨勢不變,調整完進入下一波上漲需要市場面、基本面、政策面共振,應耐心等待。

    原文來自: 中國金融觀察網

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